Spotting a turn, before you crash and burn

iSuppli has just caught up:

The days of supremacy for the Portable Navigation Device in the global navigation market are coming to an end...

"Previously, smart phones were not seen as a threat to the dominance of PNDs..." (our emphasis)

I beg to differ:

Even as PDA's fade from the technology horizon, another currently hot “P” device — the PND, or “personal navigation device” — may soon follow, says an MIT Sloan School of Management expert on business strategy, technology, and innovation.

PND products, such as Tom Tom and Garmin, may remain popular for a few years, “but life is getting tough very quickly” for PND makers, according to MIT Sloan Senior Lecturer Michael A. M. Davies. PND's face a growing challenge not only from cell phones, which are increasingly equipped with high-end navigation programs, but from a less obvious competitor: automobile makers.

Davies wonders whether PND makers “will be able to spot a market turning point before it arrives. Right now, things look great for them, but that trend will reverse dramatically,” he explains. “The three-way battle between them, cell phone makers and car vendors is already underway...

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[The decline and demise of the]

[...] The decline and demise of the PND A long while ago, just about at the point at which most everyone was proclaiming the ascendancy of the PND, I challenged conventional wisdom and predicted its imminent decline and demise. iSuppli caught up recently. [...]