Femtocells have the whiff of 'if' not 'when'

There's a discussion on Mobile Innovation about 'When will Femtocells go Mass Market?'

We think it's now 'if', not when:

1. the market in the developed world is moving to smartphones


2. substantially all smartphones will have WiFi


3. WiFi is already pervasive in the enterprise


4. WiFi is widespread in the home

So, who needs the extra cost and expense of a femtocell, when the WiFi infrastructure is already there? Vodafone is asking £160 (= US$265, €183) for its femtocell, the Vodafone Access Gateway:

Vodafone Access Gateway

A Belkin N150 Enhanced Wireless Router for BT is just £70 ( = US$117, €80) - less than half as much:

Belkin N150 Enhanced Wireless Router

Part of the discussion was triggered by a new report from Juniper Research, which puts the numbers at just 15 million worldwide by 2012. That's hardly mass market: it's much less than 1% of subscribers in the developed world. It's not enough to put any sort of dent in the smartphone surge shortfall.

So for femtocells, it's becoming if, not when...

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