Monetizing mobile on Android – and HTML5

Future: Mobile 2011 – the Rutberg event at the St Regis in San Francisco opened with an interesting discussion amongst Twitter, LinkedIn, Skype and Groupon. For me, the key point of the discussion was an observation about one of the key differences between the iOS and Android business ecosystems – monetization.

Although some of these services, such as LinkedIn, do not (yet) pursue monetization on mobile, there was a broad consensus that the key challenge for Android is monetization; whatever the numbers say, Android customers are currently much less prone to spending money on mobile apps and services, and that’s a key challenge for this mobile business ecosystem.

Indeed, with the move to HTML5, these challenges may increase. Despite their limitations – such as the horrendous merchandizing of the Android Market – there is at least a clearly defined and well established path to market; this is not yet defined for HTML5. OK, so this may be a forlorn hope, but can we learn from these challenges with native apps, and do a much better job?

Who can we look to for this done really well?

Suggestions gratefully received.

In a post-PC era, HTML5 wins even on the PC

In a post late last night on Ars Technica, which focuses primarily on the impact on Windows developer, there’s a critical kernel:

Microsoft Vice President Julie Larson-Green, in charge of the Windows Experience, briefly describes a new immersive application—a weather application—and says, specifically, that the application uses “our new developer platform, which is …. based on HTML5 and JavaScript.” [emphasis added] 

The quote is at 3:45 in this video:

So, as we enter a post-PC era, beautifully illustrated by this post from Horace Dediu of Asymco, HTML5 dominates even on the PC:

Virgin won't Flash

Standards battles are often critical to competitive success; one of the key contests currently underway is over web standards for rich(er) content:

• Adobe's Flash - very widely used (YouTube, anyone), but (famously) not supported by Apple on the iPhone, and perceived by many as a major source of security weakenesses
• HTML5 - being advocated by Google
• Silverlight - Microsoft's proprietary technology

In a recent assessment, we concluded that Flash was so widespread, and the standard-setting process so slow, that it would be a very very long time before HTML5 became the dominant standard.
An interesting recent development suggests, however, that a reassessment might be worthwhile - we're always alert for these 'triggers' or early indicators of how different demand and business ecosystem scenarios evolve:

Start-up airline Virgin America has decided HTML is "good enough" for animating online content on its brand-new website, which went live Monday, dumping Flash.
...
It illustrates the options customers have between picking the closed Flash - or Silverlight from Microsoft - and open technologies such as HTML to serve content to a new generation of mobile computing devices.
Virgin picked HTML to give users of iPhones and other mobiles the option in the future of checking in through their phone. The battle between Adobe and Apple has seen Flash deliberately excluded from the Jesus Phone. 

Simhambhatla: iPhone, and other mobile, users welcome

Later, it highlights the value of Flash when you control the hardware:

"Flash provides beautiful interactivity," Simhambhatla said. "We wanted to bring a smoother application experience and modularity and be able to build up an interactive experience for the kiosk user - Flash is all these.
"Flash is really, really good, but as long as you can keep the hardware controlled...If the hardware you are trying to put your product on isn't [controlled] then Flash is questionable."