Flashback

A post this morning on Engadget about the similarity between the most recent ad for the iPad, and one for the original Apple Newton gave me a profound sense of déjà vu.

It’s far from unusual to see Apple ripping off others when it comes to spots, and the same is true in reverse. But copying itself? Head on past the break to catch the similarities between Cupertino’s freshest iPad commercial and an eerily familiar Newton ad from yesteryear — something tells us the former will make a somewhat more indelible mark on the world than the latter, though.

Back in the mid-90′s, more than fifteen years ago, I was one of the pioneers of tablets with digital cellular connectivity: working in New Zealand for what is now Vodafone New Zealand we put together the Apple Newton with the Nokia DataCard and the Nokia 2110 to provide the first predecessor for today’s smart phones; this was even before the very first Nokia Communicator.

Anyway, take a look at the two videos:

Mobile shapes cloud services

There's an interesting guest post on TechCrunch this morning by Marc Benioff of salesforce.com, an archetype for or epitome of cloud services, talking about how 'cloud services' are evolving. I hate his 'Cloud 2' moniker, but agree with some of his hypothesis, if not all:

Cloud 1 ————————————->Cloud 2

Type/Click———————————->Touch
Yahoo/Amazon—————————–>Facebook
Tabs——————————————>Feeds
Chat——————————————>Video
Pull——————————————->Push
Create—————————————->Consume
Location Unknown————————->Location Known
Desktop/notebook————————->Smart phone/Tablet
Windows/Mac——————————>Cocoa/HTML 5

Fundamental Shift in Cloud ComputingFWIW, we believe that amazon.com and Google will both thrive, and remain deeply skeptical about Twitter.

One very interesting development, is how this battle is affecting standards for rich graphics on the web. Marc notes the move to Cocoa and HTML5; we were skeptical about HTML5 but may re-examine our position given the impact of the iPad and the iPhone, as highlighted by this recent post from Gizmodo:

The iPad doesn't run Flash. If your website uses Flash, it won't play well on the iPad. Turns out, a lot of people want their sites to look pretty on the iPad. So the internet's already starting to look different.

One of the more interesting effects of the iPhone was that it drove a ton of websites to format their content for the phone in at least of two ways, and often both: iPhone-optimized sites, with more finger-friendly navigational elements that look almost app-like, and actual iPhone apps. We're seeing a repeat with the iPad, though the adjustment appears to be less about the screen size than its lack of Flash support, and there's the fact a lot of sites will be ready on day one. (Though before we go any further, let's be clear: Flash is sticking around, for many reasons, regardless of Apple's opinion of it.)

The new age of connected devices?

Does the iPad herald a new age of connected devices, or is it “just a big iPod”? Reviews have been mixed.

Apple's iPad: With WiFi for $499; with WiFi and 3G for $629

And even if you love it, will you be willing to pay the extra $130 upfront and $29.99 per month for 3G service, or is WiFi sufficient? (Particularly given that a 3G chipset adds only $7-10 to the BOM).

I suspect WiFi is sufficient, and that the price of 3G connectivity is too steep. It is too steep, in particular, because in a new era of multiple connected devices each new device cannot come with its own expensive data plan. It is one thing to pay for home broadband ($40-50) and a smartphone data plan (~$30). It is another to add a netbook, a MiFi, a connected camera, an eReader, and/or an iPad and have each of these carrying its own contract.

Would you buy a separate data plan for each of these devices?

My family looked at netbooks for Christmas this year, and chose to buy without the subsidy and wireless broadband contract. The most common use cases for netbooks and iPads are still likely to be in places with WiFi connectivity: Home, office, hotel, café. And if you own more than one connected device, then you are better off buying a MiFi portable WiFi hub (from Verizon or Sprint) and sharing 3G connectivity across multiple devices than having a 3G connection for each device.

With this in mind, it actually could make more sense for wireline broadband providers to subsidize netbooks and iPads and connected consumer electronics than for wireless companies to do so. In our case, the netbook bundled with FiOS Internet or Comcast’s DOCSIS 3.0 service would have been more compelling than the 3G offer. For the iPad, a purchase for less than $499 with WiFi and a bundle of pre-loaded apps and services (such as Verizon Media Manager or a Comcast TV Everywhere app) from a broadband service provider would be interesting indeed.