The decline and demise of the PND

A long while ago, just about at the point at which most everyone was proclaiming the ascendancy of the PND, I challenged conventional wisdom and predicted its imminent decline and demise. iSuppli caught up recently.

Now, as David Pogue notes in the NY Times, Android 2.0 may have helped nail the lid on the coffin:

In addition to great speed, great audio and great cell signal, the Droid offers Android 2.0’s new navigation software. It’s as close to a suction-cup GPS unit as you can get on a cellphone, with spoken street names, color coding to indicate traffic, map icons (for parking, gas and so on), satellite view and even street photos of any address. Buy the $30 windshield bracket, which fires up the GPS automatically when you insert the Droid, and nobody will know you’re not running some $500 GPS unit.

The real mind blower/game changer? This software is free. All of it. I’m guessing there wasn’t much cheer at Garmin’s Halloween party this year.

Overall, the Droid, notwithstanding its lack of WiFi, seems to be a worthy contender:

the Droid wins on phone network, customizability, GPS navigation, speaker, physical keyboard, removable battery and openness (free operating system, mostly uncensored app store)

the iPhone wins on simplicity, refinement, thinness, design, Web browsing, music/video synching with your computer, accessory ecosystem and quality/quantity of the app store

Seems like Walt likes the Droid as well, albeit with some reservations:

I’ve been testing the Droid, and while it has some significant drawbacks, I regard it as a success overall. It’s the best super-smart phone Verizon offers, the best Motorola (MOT) phone I’ve tested and the best hardware so far to run Android.

The Droid is potentially a big win for Verizon, Motorola and Google

[Although] Android still isn’t as slick or fluid as the iPhone’s OS

[The Droid] is only a tad longer and thicker than the Apple product. But it’s 25% heavier, which makes it less comfortable to carry around in a pocket.

Unfortunately for lovers of physical keyboards, I found the one on the Droid to be pretty awful.

And it does have a cool new ad:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9fXYQjwR0w&hl=en&fs=1&]

Spotting a turn, before you crash and burn

iSuppli has just caught up:

The days of supremacy for the Portable Navigation Device in the global navigation market are coming to an end...

"Previously, smart phones were not seen as a threat to the dominance of PNDs..." (our emphasis)

I beg to differ:

Even as PDA's fade from the technology horizon, another currently hot “P” device — the PND, or “personal navigation device” — may soon follow, says an MIT Sloan School of Management expert on business strategy, technology, and innovation.

PND products, such as Tom Tom and Garmin, may remain popular for a few years, “but life is getting tough very quickly” for PND makers, according to MIT Sloan Senior Lecturer Michael A. M. Davies. PND's face a growing challenge not only from cell phones, which are increasingly equipped with high-end navigation programs, but from a less obvious competitor: automobile makers.

Davies wonders whether PND makers “will be able to spot a market turning point before it arrives. Right now, things look great for them, but that trend will reverse dramatically,” he explains. “The three-way battle between them, cell phone makers and car vendors is already underway...