Ecosystems, economics and ethics

At the moment, we're doing some research on the future of web services.

One of the things I was exploring was the economics of social networks and social gaming, when I came across this fascinating post from Michael Arrington on TechCrunch about the [alleged] economics and ethics of some Facebook games such as Mobsters and FarmVille:

Last weekend I wrote about how the big social gaming companies are making hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue on Facebook and MySpace through games like Farmville and Mobsters. Major media can’t stop applauding the companieslong enough to understand what’s really going on with these games. The real story isn’t the business success of these startups. It’s the completely unethical way that they are going about achieving that success

If an ecosystem is to survive and thrive, it must be built on a sound foundation; that includes a solid ethical foundation. Although these tactics may drive short-run growth and profits, they are not a basis for an enduring ecosystem. Users will become disaffected, word-of-mouth will suffer, and particularly in an environment such as Facebook, designed to facilitate communication amongst friends, information about these scams will spread like wildfire.

Clearly, some of those involved are a little sensitive about this:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PhKRCkbX9A&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1]

For the avoidance of all possible doubt, this is not a critique of the games themselves. Rather it's an indictment of (1) the people conducting the scams [like these] and (2) those who condone them.

Note: amended thus and [thus] to reflect continuing debate on this topic

Everything is changing

The way we interact with the world around us is changing in subtle and not-so-subtle ways. We notice it when the pattern breaks down – and even in the most mundane parts of our lives. Spend a week in airports and large corporate offices and suddenly you are surprised when the toilet doesn’t auto-flush or you don’t just wave your hand to receive the next paper towel. Go to your parents’ or in-laws’ house and see the grainy prehistoric-seeming non-HD, non-DVR television that was perfectly adequate most of your life: Why can’t I pause? Why can’t I see that football play again? (and again and again?)

The very notion that a TV show has a set time is beginning to seem antiquated. It is more like a “release date.”

Get in your car; drive somewhere new. Did it even occur to you to get directions? Or do you now just punch it in to your smartphone or PND or car navigation system?

It was not that long ago that we would call someone on a landline telephone before leaving one location in order to be sure we knew how to get to the next location. And in the grand scheme of things this probably seemed like a miraculous approach relative to wandering around in the woods with a compass and a map.

Oh, and by the way, Google just made that navigation experience free.

These changes are occurring in all facets of our lives and with every piece of machinery with which we interact (for instance, clocks were set back an hour this past weekend, and most of the clocks I use regularly did this automatically – my atomic watch, my Blackberry, my laptop, my set top boxes). And the collective result of these changes over time will be a world that our parents and grandparents won’t recognize. Which I suppose is only fair, given that the world we live in today is barely recognizable to the one we were born into.

I was in a meeting the other day and someone mentioned dial-up email users. Dial-up email users! Apparently, there are still people who do this. In the future, it will seem incomprehensible that anyone ever dialed-in to the Internet using a landline telephone service.

In the future, devices all around us, connected by ubiquitous broadband, will be trying to anticipate our needs or respond to our immediate whims. Some through voice commands, some through touch-screens, some through gestures in the air. Our data will find the most secure, least-cost route; our devices will find the best rate for electricity, our cars will practically drive themselves. Our bodies will interact with connected sensors that can relay information about our health status, providing updates, warnings and reminders.

This year, in a difficult economy, it is easy to lose sight of these incredible changes, but if anything they are accelerating:

• My kids will never have a landline telephone
• They will never not have broadband Internet access or a computer
• They will look at CDs and DVDs the way we look at vinyl and eight-track tapes
• They won’t even really have phone numbers. They will have social networks and will connect to people they know directly, without needing an intervening serial number (phone numbers and IP addresses will hide in the background, where they belong)
• Lots of things we’ve paid a lot of money for they will get for free or very cheap
• They will watch what they want when they want where they want. It will probably be in interactive 3D or somesuch, and they will look back at HD as the highly compromised experience of their childhood

It is fun and interesting to be part of this transformation. If your company is embracing and leveraging these trends, then you are probably in good shape. If you are fighting them, then you might be in trouble. It may take time, but everything is changing.