TiVo, switched video, Clicker and irony

Let me begin with a confession: as a passionate advocate of usability in consumer electronics, I am a long-time TiVo fan, so much so that its availability has dictated my choice of video content service. First DirecTV, then Comcast when they made available the Series 3 integrated with the cable service (although the CableCard installation was a nightmare of epic proportions...).

Over the last several days there were, however, four related news items, some of which seem tinged with irony:

• today, its judgement against EchoStar and DishTV for $200 million was upheld - unsurprisingly EchoStar plans to appeal - vindicating the value of the key innovation that TiVo provides
• a couple of days ago, TiVo announced its Series 4 devices: demonstrating the importance of 'over the top' video, its new UI integrates this seamlessly into the overall user experience

TiVo Premiere

• a few days earlier, Clicker, a service that in some ways appears inspired by TiVo, aiming to bring a TiVo-like experience to web TV garnered $11m in funding

Clicker

• the explosion in diversity of content and the growth of time-shifting and now place-shifting is forcing cable providers towards switched video, which in turn threatens TiVo's whole technical architecture because of its inability to communicate upstream

So, what does this mean? Does TiVo win the IP battle and lose the platform war? Do the innovators it inspired arise to eclipse it? Whither linear TV and OTT content?

(Parenthetically, the new UI is Flash-based, but then TiVo does control the hardware platform)

Obsolete technology: On sale now!

After posting "Everything is changing" yesterday, I came across this FYE store on my commute home:



Obsolete Technology: On Sale Now!

I wouldn't want to be selling CDs and DVDs right now. Particularly from a brick-and-mortar storefront. Content is rapidly digitizing and physical media are bulky, expensive, inefficient, and inconvenient.

Why carry that zippered case full of CDs or DVDs when you can fit your entire media library on something the size of a key fob? Eventually, why carry even a key fob or thumb drive or media player when your car or smartphone or computer will just sync your library from the cloud and everything will be conveniently available when and where you need it?

I wouldn't want to be selling books, either.

I love books. The physical, tactile, stretch-out-on-a-couch-by-the-fire-with-my-dog-at-my-feet experience of books. In spite of this, I am considering a Kindle or a Nook. If you read a lot of books, an eReader's simplicity (download rather than order online or drive to a bookstore) and economics (significant savings per title at only $9.99 for a new release) are compelling. And although only a small fraction of readers have adopted the Kindle, these lead users are already having a disruptive impact. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective), a small fraction of readers represents a very large proportion of book purchases. In fact, for books available on the Kindle, the Kindle represents ~35% of book sales. This is less than 1% of the addressable market representing 35% of unit sales! If this trend continues and eReaders gain in popularity, then bookstores will eventually go the way of video rental stores and CD/DVD stores. And dinosaurs.

Now guide goes over the top

One of the significant remaining barriers to more widespread adoption of video on demand over IP (VoDoIP), or TV 'over the top', is accessibility - being able to find the content you're interested in, and get it easily. Now there's a startup that wants to solve this challenge:

Clicker, a service launching today at TechCrunch50, wants to be the most comprehensive way to find the video content you’re looking for on the web.

While there are no shortage of video search engines out there, Clicker believes its offering is superior because it creates a structured database of programming, organizing shows by things like network, genre, and show name. This type of data not only allows for better search results, but it allows you to browse content without having to do text-based searches, which you probably won’t be doing when television and future web-enabled tablets start to serve up this content.

Clicker - 'TV Guide' for the web

Om on our Flip no-no

Om Malik of GigaOM has just responded on GigaOM to the debate around the new (5G) iPod Nano and the Flip, which we wanted to consign to the deadpool.

First:

Have you bought and used the new Nano? I think you will quickly realize that it isn’t that easy to use.

Secondly, to say that two hands will result in a stable camera and better shot. Of course, a Cannon HD camera would result in an awesome shot.

I think comparison is Flip – which you can use with one hand. Secondly, i think the video camera on iPhone 3GS is pretty awesome. and works nicely with one hand usage.

For the avoidance of all possible doubt:

• the new iPod Nano isn't that easy to use


• the right comparison is the Flip

Nevertheless, when evaluating the prospects for a new device, such as the Flip, which has not yet reached the mass market, you need to think about both the function and what else a potential customer (a) wants to do and (b) owns; you have to consider the choice in context.

As I said in my original comment, there's only very limited scenarios under which the Flip gets bought:

Scenario 1: I want a small, easy to use, video capture device – the Flip wins (- and I don't own a Nano and I'm not concerned about music (added))

Scenario 2: I want a small, easy to use, elegant music player – the Nano wins

Scenario 3: I want both a small, easy to use, video capture device and a small, easy to use music player – the Nano wins

Scenario 2A: I have a 5G Nano, and I want to capture video – does the usability challenge of camera placement justify the incremental expenditure on a Flip – $150 or $200? - no

Second:

if you are a casual video taker then the iPhone or new Blackberry’s do a pretty awesome job. I use the Blackberry Tour and it rocks. It is perfect for casual video. I think Flip is a step up because it creates better videos and has better sound capture.

I agree that it's a 'step up', but enough to justify another $150 or $200? I think not. Look, I'm a gadget freak, and even I can't imagine running that one past my wife...

Why flip the Flip

GigaOM posted this morning a suggestion that the Flip Wins For Now over the Nano:

Since I don’t own a Flip, I thought well maybe this might be a good option. I tried out the device and within a few minutes I realized that this is not for me. Why? The camera is positioned in a really awkward position which makes usage very unintuitive. I guess someone wasn’t quite thinking. Any how does it stack up against Flip? Chris and Liz did a side-by-side comparisonof the new iPod Nano with Flip SD and are underwhelmed by the new Nano

We said earlier 'Flip the Flip' and we still think so. Why? Because in making this evaluation you need to consider two key things:

1. what's the job that the product is being hired for, what's its function or functions


2. what else does the potential customer already own

There's only very limited scenarios under which the Flip is the best choice:

• only want video capture, not music playing


• do not own a 5G Nano

If a customer is evaluating a Nano against a Flip, then it's only if the only criterion is video capture that the Flip wins. For many customers, the Nano's music playing function will tip the balance in its favor.

And if a customer already owns a 5G Nano, then it's going to be really hard to justify $150 or $200 to overcome the problems of poor camera placement. There's just not enough value going to be available to sustain the Flip...